Over the past few months, a series of polls have been released on Joe Biden’s approval ratings, his agenda, and the favorability ratings for Congress, all of which have shown a pretty consistent pattern of bad news for Democrats as the 2022 midterms campaign season gets underway.
Underscoring the strong likelihood of a coming red wave beyond Virginia’s were two new ones released in the last week, with an ABC/WaPo one showing a Congressional generic ballot swing towards Republicans to the tune of +10 percent (51-R,41-D), and another one from Rasmussen that showed a “historic” 13-point Republican lead in their polling on a generic Congressional ballot, including a large 20-point gap with independents.
Adding to the woes for the Biden administration and Congressional Democrats in a big way will be the latest Politico/Morning Consult numbers, which are relevant, because the same poll was taken a year ago about a month before Election Day, with results that were far more favorable to Biden regarding whether voters believe he’s in good physical health and whether he’s mentally fit. The new numbers show that on both counts, there’s been major shift among voters – against Biden:
Only 40 percent of voters surveyed agreed with the statement that Biden “is in good health,” while 50 percent disagreed. That 10-percentage-point gap — outside the poll’s margin of error — represents a massive 29-point shift since October 2020, when Morning Consult last surveyed the question and found voters believed Biden was in good health by a 19-point margin.
Asked whether Biden is mentally fit, voters are almost evenly split, with 46 percent saying he is and 48 percent disagreeing. But that negative 2-point margin stands in stark contrast to Biden’s numbers last October, when voters believed he was mentally fit by a 21-point margin.
While it would be easy for Democrats to assume the driving influencers behind the shift were Republicans who consistently questioned Biden’s mental fitness, Politico noted that the driving factor in the number reversals were independent voters:
To [Democratic pollster Celinda] Lake’s point, the Morning Consult poll generally shows that Trump voters and Republicans generally believe Biden is neither physically nor mentally fit, and Biden voters believe the opposite. However, independents — by a margin of 23 points — don’t agree that Biden is mentally fit now.
Related to all of this is a new Hill-HarrisX poll that shows a majority of registered voters (61%) say Biden should step aside in 2024 and let someone else run in his place. And a Harvard-Harris poll taken last month showed similar findings to the Politico/Morning Consult poll on the issue of Biden’s mental fitness.
The writing is clearly on the wall here for Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats. Of course, there’s tons of time between now and next year’s midterms, and anything can happen — and Republicans should not get cocky.
But as I’ve said before, unless we see some dramatic shift for the better on the economy and related kitchen table issues, which are at the heart of what most people think about come election time, there’s a strong likelihood that the slim majority Biden has enjoyed in the House and the razor-thin one he has in the Senate will be a thing of the past. As my colleague, Bonchie once predicted, “A red wave was already probable, but it’s quickly reaching imminent territory.”
Clearly, voters are signaling they’ve had enough of the current occupant of the Oval Office, between all the embarrassing moments including the gaffes, the odd whispering, the weird stares, his handlers having to rescue him, and all the rest.
The only question that remains is how many of them will respond accordingly in a year’s time? Stay tuned.