Currently, Biden’s lead stands at an average of 7.4% nationally, down three points in just two weeks, according to RealClearPolitics. Among top battleground states, Biden’s lead is less than 4% on average.
To survey which candidate is expected to win an election, pollsters typically gauge voter interest by simply asking respondents for whom they plan to vote; this is known as the “voter intention question.”
But the operators of the USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll are asking respondents two additional questions: the “social-circle question” and the “state-winner question,” which probes which candidate respondents think will win their state.
The reasoning behind the “social-circle question” is simple, according to USC Dornsife. Asking respondents who they think their social circle will vote for is extremely reliable, the polling institute said. In fact, USC Dornsife has asked the question in five elections — and each time the outcome has been more reliable than the “voter intension question” outcome.
Using these two questions, the pollsters discovered great news for Trump.